China’s humanoid robot output is projected to exceed 100,000 units in 2026, according to Gan Xiaobin, deputy director of the department of science and technology under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Gan disclosed the forecast at a press conference for the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, scheduled to take place in Shanghai from July 17 to 20. The figure represents a substantial step up in industrial capacity for a category that produced only a fraction of that volume as recently as last year, and reinforces analyst characterizations of China as the dominant force in global humanoid manufacturing.
Gan attributed the growth to China’s expanding AI applications and ecosystem, which he said are powering the domestic robotics industry. The penetration rate of AI applications among Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size has surpassed 30 percent. The National AI Industry Investment Fund is stepping up operations to direct additional private capital into the sector, alongside earlier state-led programs including the recent nationwide mandate for state-owned enterprises and local governments to deploy humanoid robots and embodied AI systems by year-end.
The Shanghai conference is expected to feature more than 1,100 exhibitors and over 3,000 exhibits, with more than 300 products making their global debut. The event covers forums, exhibitions, innovation incubation, and talent exchanges under the theme “AI partnership for a brighter future”. Recent Chinese pricing moves, including Unitree’s reduction of its R1 humanoid starting price to 29,900 yuan, illustrate the cost dynamics that are enabling higher production volumes. Barclays previously estimated that China accounted for approximately 85 percent of global humanoid robot deployments last year, and a 100,000-unit production year would further widen that lead.
The scale of the projected output represents a shift in how humanoid robotics should be evaluated as an industry. Volume production at that level tests supply chains for actuators, batteries, sensors, and specialized computing hardware, and creates a durable base of deployed units generating operational data that can feed model training and product iteration. Whether the produced units translate into productive, sustained deployment rather than warehousing or short-duration pilots will be the more meaningful measure of whether the sector is maturing operationally. Still, the figure signals that humanoid robotics has moved past a boutique manufacturing phase and into a genuine industrial category with associated cost, competitive, and geopolitical implications for the rest of the industry.
